4k3, limiting explosions to 2 (i.e. max 30): Value Probability for = Probability for < 3 : 0.0001 0.0 4 : 0.0004 0.0001 5 : 0.001 0.0005 6 : 0.0021 0.0015 7 : 0.0038 0.0036 8 : 0.0062 0.0074 9 : 0.0095 0.0136 10 : 0.0138 0.0231 11 : 0.0192 0.0369 12 : 0.0255 0.0561 13 : 0.03244 0.0816 14 : 0.03936 0.11404 15 : 0.04614 0.1534 16 : 0.05212 0.19954 17 : 0.05708 0.25166 18 : 0.06046 0.30874 19 : 0.06204 0.3692 20 : 0.06116 0.43124 21 : 0.0583 0.4924 22 : 0.05384 0.5507 23 : 0.04849 0.60454 24 : 0.042586 0.65303 25 : 0.036848 0.695616 26 : 0.031512 0.732464 27 : 0.027398 0.763976 28 : 0.024742 0.791374 29 : 0.024264 0.816116 30 : 0.0224 0.84038 31 : 0.02025 0.86278 32 : 0.017852 0.88303 33 : 0.01536681 0.900882 34 : 0.01290884 0.91624881 35 : 0.0106325 0.92915765 36 : 0.00865221 0.93979015 37 : 0.00712238 0.94844236 38 : 0.00615742 0.95556474 39 : 0.00591175 0.96172216 40 : 0.00533978 0.96763391 41 : 0.00474592 0.97297369 42 : 0.00411775 0.97771961 43 : 0.003480784 0.98183736 44 : 0.002862276 0.985318144 45 : 0.002285534 0.98818042 46 : 0.001777812 0.990465954 47 : 0.001362408 0.992243766 48 : 0.001066586 0.993606174 49 : 0.000913644 0.99467276 50 : 0.000816836 0.995586404 51 : 0.00070513 0.99640324 52 : 0.000596988 0.99710837 53 : 0.0004937886 0.997705358 54 : 0.000397729 0.9981991466 55 : 0.0003110364 0.9985968756 56 : 0.000235898 0.998907912 57 : 0.000174551 0.99914381 58 : 0.0001291826 0.999318361 59 : 0.00010202 0.9994475436 60 : 9.12704E~5 0.9995495636 61 : 7.7467E~5 0.999640834 62 : 6.46996E~5 0.999718301 63 : 5.2830961E~5 0.9997830006 64 : 4.1998684E~5 0.999835831561 65 : 3.233637E~5 0.999877830245 66 : 2.3981621E~5 0.999910166615 67 : 1.7068038E~5 0.999934148236 68 : 1.1733222E~5 0.999951216274 69 : 8.110775E~6 0.999962949496 70 : 6.338298E~6 0.999971060271 71 : 5.353392E~6 0.999977398569 72 : 4.372459E~6 0.999982751961 73 : 3.492216E~6 0.99998712442 74 : 2.71386E~6 0.999990616636 75 : 2.038585E~6 0.999993330496 76 : 1.467588E~6 0.999995369081 77 : 1.002062E~6 0.999996836669 78 : 6.43205E~7 0.999997838731 79 : 3.9221E~7 0.999998481936 80 : 2.50274E~7 0.999998874146 81 : 2.18591E~7 0.99999912442 82 : 1.78958E~7 0.999999343011 83 : 1.43254E~7 0.999999521969 84 : 1.11489E~7 0.999999665223 85 : 8.3668E~8 0.999999776712 86 : 5.98E~8 0.99999986038 87 : 3.9891E~8 0.99999992018 88 : 2.395E~8 0.999999960071 89 : 1.1982E~8 0.999999984021 90 : 3.997E~9 0.999999996003